CardiovascularLatest Replikins Data Predicts Continued High Level Of H1N1 (Swine Flu) Infectivity And Lethality
Biotech firm Replikins Ltd. released its analysis of the June and July genomic data that predicts the rates of infectivity and lethality of the H1N1 (Swine Flu) virus. The quantitative analysis shows continued elevated levels in the Replikin Counts* of both Infectivity and Lethality genes, which indicate that the end of the current outbreak is not yet in sight.
"The H1N1 virus continues to be increased in its lethality and infectivity according to our most recent data," explained Samuel Bogoch MD PhD, chairman of Replikins Ltd. "Compared to the SARS outbreak in 2003, where that virus"s Replikin Count rapidly decreased shortly after the outbreak, followed swiftly by clinical abatement, the Swine Flu does not show any sign of easing off."
The current H1N1 outbreak in early 2009 was predicted by the company"s FluForecast® software in April 2008, when the Replikin Count reached 7 -- the same level achieved during the H1N1 1918 Pandemic. (See Figure). While most expected a summer pause, the Replikins Infectivity Gene data published in late May 2009 indicated that no respite was to be expected. Since then, the global spread of the virus has been so rapid that both the WHO and the CDC last week announced they have stopped counting cases.
Specifically, the Replikin Count of the H1N1 Infectivity Gene, doubled from 2002 to 2008, increased an additional 43% in the first few months of 2009, and maintained that elevated level from May into July, while the Lethality Replikin Count, up 65% from May to June, remains elevated in July but at a slightly lower level -- still 40% above that of May. Changes in Replikin Count have been shown to precede the clinical reality by six to 12 months in all other influenza outbreaks of record.
FluForecast® is the first data-driven service to assess the risks posed by all strains of influenza virus wherever genome sequence data is available. It demonstrated that all influenza pandemics and epidemics, and their cessation, over the last 90 years have been associated with statistically significant changes in the concentration (Replikin Count) of a particular group of genomic peptides of the virus associated with rapid replication (Replikins). It is the first and only such quantitative correlation of influenza epidemics with a virus"s structure.
"The technology now exists to tackle one of the most vexing problems facing virologists and public health officials: how to correctly predict if, when, and where a particular strain of influenza virus will break out," added Dr. Bogoch. "We now have proprietary software that can analyze vast quantities of publicly available genomic data, specifically for the dynamics of rapid replication, which has led to the development of this new and unique tool for predicting these global health threats. Advance strain-specific warning permits time to respond with public health containment measures and for the development of "tailor-made" vaccines."
This month, Replikins, Ltd. was contacted by and reached out to senior government health officials in dozens of countries to offer the FluForecast® service. Many plan to introduce the service to their public health surveillance programs both for early warning and for tracking epidemics.
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